As every good Fantasy Coach knows, having a good start to the season is vital for setting up your team for the rest of the season. And the first eight rounds of the AFL draw are a particularly crucial period for team growth. It is the period you move from your ‘growth stocks’ and transition into ‘blue-chip stocks’ (so to speak); your rookies and ‘project players’ fulfill their growth potentials and hit their break-evens. This gives you the much needed funds to bring in the premium players in the race to complete your team.
When choosing a player, their job security and scoring potential are obviously the most important criteria. However, one secondary factor which is often overlooked when choosing between two similar players is the difficulty of the draw. Let’s face it; it’s difficult for a young player to score well if they’re team is getting pumped by ten goals.
To determine the difficulty of the draw I have added up each teams “Against” AFL Fantasy scores. This determines which teams were the easiest to score against during the 2017 season:
Points Conceded – Best to Worst
|1||Greater Western Sydney||33879|
While last years performance isn’t a guarantee of future performance, it’s the best indication we have. So if you believe a team will do better or worse in 2018 – take that into consideration.
Greater Western Sydney, Richmond, Gold Coast and Essendon are the teams with the easiest draw. Following this are Melbourne, North Melbourne and St Kilda with a slightly favourable draw. Collingwood, Hawthorn and Adelaide have among the hardest starts to the season.
Given weaker AFL teams are more likely to play rookie and promising players, it’s teams such as Gold Coast and North Melbourne where I believe we’ll see a lot of value this year; coupling opportunity with an easy draw in the early part of the season.
So tell us what you think in the comments. Does the difficulty of a teams come into consideration for you? And from which teams are you looking to find value?