In the Band of Brothers series, I’m looking to identifying players which statistically are most likely to represent the best value for money. These are the players that are the “keepers” in your team – not your rookies who are mere stepping stones to bigger and better things.
In Band of Brothers – Part 1, I found that players who are between 160 and 240 career games have the greatest average AFL Fantasy Totals.
For this post, I’m going to look at the next criteria, Price.
The Price is Right
It is difficult to talk about value without talking about price. Here is a chart of a players starting price in 2017 and their Fantasy Total at the end of the season:
As we see, initial price is a good indicator of a players total at the end of the season. This is intuitive; your premiums are going to outscore your rookies and mid-pricers. There’s almost a linear progression from price to their total scored.
However, when determining value what is more helpful is Price per Point; i.e. how many Fantasy Points can you buy per dollar spent?
The main thing of interest from this graph is a $550,000 player represents almost as good value a $750,000+ uber-premium. This means that you can put a $550,000 player at the start of the season, and be fairly confident you will keep in touch with leagues best.
As I explored in my series, Buyer Beware there is a strong correlation between games missed in one season, and games missed in the next. And nothing kills your Fantasy Total bottom line like players missing games. It forces trades where you could be improving your team – just to tread water. And when players break down, they often do so early in a match, lowering their average. An average you have to cash out at to trade to someone else. This is effectively lost value.
So when looking at value for money, I will be focusing on players who played at least 20 games in the previous season.
So far when sifting through players for 2018, my criteria is:
- Played between 160 and 240 career games
- Priced above $550,000
- Played at least 20 games last season
In Band of Brothers – Part 3, I’ll be putting it altogether, and naming names of players statistically most likely to represent value in 2018.