This Week in AFL Fantasy

Round 15 – Who stays and who goes.

It was a high-scoring round with many punters exceeding the 2300 mark. Unfortunately I locked in Lloyd’s score of 125 (after Mitchell’s last couple of poor scores) and missed out on his mammoth 195 as captain.

Please note that this week there is another Thursday night game, so there is a partial lockout in place.

Break-Evens

Trade In

Always go for the rookies with the best job security first. And coming into the pointy end of the season there are fewer decent options coming through. Really it’s only Sier and Narkle which have caught my eye.

Player Price Position Games Average Break Even
Q. Narkle $204,000 MID 1 88.00 -14
J. Battle $284,000 FOR 3 73.00 -13
B. Sier $201,000 MID 1 82.00 -10
J. Dawson $196,000 MID 2 47.50 2
B. Lynch $191,000 DEF 1 63.00 4
S. Giro $292,000 MID 4 61.80 5
J. Jones $213,000 FOR 3 45.30 5
P. Kerr $235,000 FOR 4 45.50 9
M. Apeness $324,000 FOR 4 70.30 10
P. Wilson $185,000 MID, FOR 1 51.00 11
K. Mutch $265,000 MID 3 60.00 11
R. Garthwaite $182,000 DEF 1 47.00 13
P. Ahern $308,000 MID, FOR 4 66.30 13
D. Clarke $181,000 MID, FOR 1 46.00 14
B. Mihocek $292,000 DEF 4 61.00 14
M. O’Connor $209,000 DEF, MID 1 56.00 14
B. Ainsworth $256,000 MID 2 60.00 14

Trade Out

After the byes you should be looking at job security more than break-evens – as you just need adequate bench cover. All the same, there are a few boys who could go for Sier and Narkle and the like – or be upgraded.

Player Price Position Games Average Break Even
S. Taylor $220,000 DEF 4 33.80 34
R. Smith $280,000 DEF 5 44.60 46
S. Weideman $274,000 FOR 5 45.40 47
C. Polson $180,000 MID, FOR 4 26.80 29
M. Hibberd $477,000 DEF 14 71.70 74
S. Bolton $230,000 FOR 2 32.50 36
M. Eagles $180,000 DEF 4 27.50 32
M. Lewis $173,000 FOR 2 25.50 30
Z. Bailey $329,000 MID 10 49.90 56
F. Appleby $302,000 DEF 8 48.40 55
B. Jacobs $520,000 MID 12 76.10 83
C. Ballard $277,000 MID, FOR 8 42.00 49
N. Holman $456,000 MID 14 67.80 75
T. Marshall $295,000 FOR 7 46.60 54
B. Rice $337,000 DEF 6 57.20 65
W. Schofield $227,000 DEF 4 32.00 40
J. Petruccelle $183,000 MID, FOR 2 24.00 32
T. Cole $343,000 DEF 10 56.10 65
A. Cerra $426,000 MID 13 60.60 70
J. Waterman $346,000 FOR 14 55.60 68
T. English $425,000 FOR, RUC 7 67.60 80
A. Brayshaw $673,000 DEF, MID 11 96.10 109
M. Guelfi $429,000 FOR 9 68.70 82
B. Banfield $444,000 MID 14 64.20 78
J. Brander $243,000 DEF, FOR 1 30.00 44
W. Rioli $342,000 FOR 13 51.80 66
J. Cunico $463,000 MID 11 71.80 87
D. Fogarty $277,000 MID, FOR 9 42.60 58
N. Shipley $170,000 MID 2 21.50 37
B. Fritsch $578,000 FOR 13 80.20 96
Z. Guthrie $283,000 DEF 7 45.90 62
L. Davies-Uniacke $259,000 MID 5 36.20 54
N. Wright $252,000 FOR 1 29.00 47
P. Dow $402,000 MID 14 55.60 75
A. Naughton $318,000 DEF 10 49.30 69
L. Fogarty $389,000 MID, FOR 11 61.00 82
J. Finlayson $352,000 DEF, MID 11 60.00 81
L. Ryan $345,000 FOR 6 55.50 81
N. Brown $170,000 DEF 12 26.40 52
M. Crowden $270,000 MID, FOR 8 44.00 72
E. Ratugolea $318,000 FOR 8 49.30 78
B. Ainsworth $449,000 FOR 14 60.90 101
D. Moore $369,000 FOR 4 41.80 107

Noticeable Outs from Injury

Please see the following article to give you the full snap-shot of Injuries

Stay or Trade?

Bailey Banfield (43) – His fortunes went with Fremantles. I would upgrade or trade him to a Sier or Narkle. Trade

Nathan Brown (16) – Looks like a left hamstring injury. Check the injury news. Injured

Jason Castagna (25) – Played an an outside game off the half-forward flank. Not really fantasy relevant, so trade him to someone who is. Trade

Reece Conca (5) – Looks like a left broken ankle when Franklin fell on it. Check injury news. Injured

Jordan Cunico (36) – If you still have him, now is the opportune time to trade him to Sier or Narkle. Trade

Luke Dunstan (55) – Gave away 4 frees. Some recent patchy form, so put him on your watch list. Keep

Darcy Fogarty (27) – If you’ve got him he’s probably just a heartbeat on your bench. If you can upgrade him, then do so. Trade

Lance Franklin (64) – Despite kicking 4, Rance stopped the flow of possessions. Can go big at any time. Keep

Nat Fyfe (36) – Looks like a right hamstring injury. Check the injury news. Injured

Zac Giles-Langdon (25) – He’s a heartbeat on your bench. But trade if you can get him to a Sier or Narkle. Trade

Robbie Gray (62) – Such a talent, but wildly inconsistent. But 4 of his last 5 scores have been in the 60’s – which you can’t overlook any longer. Trade

Matt Guelfi (45) – While he might be a heartbeat on the bench, his break-even has exceeded his average, so trade him if you can. Trade

Isaac Heeney (18) – Looks like he got concussed, and is in doubt this week. Check the injury news. Injured

Will Hoskin-Elliott (45) – His worst score this year. Can do so much better. He’s too risky for me, but I can see his upside. Keep

Kieren Jack (39) – Handball happy. Averaging what a rookie does, so trade. Trade

Josh Jenkins (48) – May be suffering shoulder issues to check the injury news. Injured

Jake Kelly (30) – Tonned up before the bye, and now ouch! Too inconsistent for me – I’d trade him. Trade

Tom McDonald (39) – Has been in recent excellent form. Played forward on Carlisle. Has Fremantle and the Dogs, so I’d hold and see what he can do. Keep

Tom Murphy (22) – Handball happy. But should reach his break-even (33) Keep

Aaron Naughton (31) – Blicavs beat him. He’s a heartbeat on your bench at least and not many options down back. Keep

Alex Neal-Bullen (49) – The difference between his best and worst. Has a couple of easier games coming up so I’d hold him for those. Keep

Jack Newnes (47) – Played forward. Hasn’t been setting the world on fire, so upgrade him. Trade

Alex Rance (44) – Locked down Fraklin but gave away a few frees. Not the most fantasy relevant player, so trade him to someone who is. Trade

Bailey Rice (26) – A heartbeat on the bench. Has maxed out. I would trade him if there are any defender rookies coming in. Trade

Daniel Rioli (44) – It’s difficult when stuck in the pocket. Has an achievable break-even. Keep

Mitch Robinson (65) – Handball happy. Has been out for a while, but I think he will come good again. Keep

Seb Ross (67) – A down week in a good season so far. Keep him. Keep

Luke Ryan (35) – His fortune mirrored his teams. Has scored similarly and bounced back, so I’d keep unless he was my worst averaging player. Keep

Liam Ryan (25) – He’s a heartbeat on your bench, but has maxed out. Trade if you have adequate cover. Trade

Christian Salem (48) – Gave away a frew frees and had a poor showing overall. I would trade him. Trade

Heath Shaw (46) – He’s given many fantasy coaches headaches over teh years. His average is too good to ignore. Keep

Jack Silvagni (32) – Looks like an ankle or leg issue when Wingard fell on it. Check the injury news. Injured

Devon Smith (69) – A quieter week, but should finish a top 6 forward unless injured. Keep

Daniel Talia (37) – Not fantasy relevant, so I’d trade him to someone who is. Trade