AFL Fantasy is getting increasingly competitive and in this day and age all things must be considered when trying to find an edge on the competition. A frequently overlooked factor when choosing between similar players is their up-coming fixtures. After all, we know that players in winning teams score more points. And getting a good start is essential; players that start more quickly also gain value more quickly – which helps you complete your team faster than your rival coaches.

Methodology

To determine the difficulty of the draw I have added up the AFL Fantasy “Points Conceded” for each team last season. Essentially, teams that are easy to score against are considered easier draws. I used a similar methodology last year, but this year I’ve expanded upon it by also considering whether a team is playing “home” and “away”. After all, there are some teams which are power-houses on their home ground but are a much easier opponent away.

Points Conceded – Best to Worst

While last years performance isn’t a guarantee of future performance, it’s the best indication we have. So if you believe a team will do better or worse in 2019 – take that into consideration.

TeamPoints Conceded (Home)Points Conceded (Away)
Port Adelaide1698516381
Sydney1699116490
Hawthorn1704716493
Collingwood1707416789
West Coast1713116285
Essendon1731116302
Melbourne1732116645
Richmond1739217126
Brisbane1740016395
Geelong1760716130
Greater Western Sydney1761516617
Carlton1775618421
St Kilda1779917777
Adelaide1814216835
North Melbourne1817216604
Western Bulldogs1821217273
Fremantle1875217143
Gold Coast1929218057

The Results

An easy draw is ‘green’ in colour, and a hard draw is ‘red’.

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rank
Adelaide HAW SYD GEE NM GC STK FRE PA 13
Brisbane WC NM PA ESS COL GC SYD WB 5
Carlton RIC PA SYD GC WB HAW NM COL 8
Collingwood GEE RIC WC WB BRI ESS PA CAR 18
Essendon GWS STK MEL BRI NM COL GEE SYD 7
Fremantle NM GC STK WC GWS WB ADE RIC 1
Gold Coast STK FRE WB CAR ADE BRI WC MEL 2
Geelong COL MEL ADE GWS HAW WC ESS NM 16
Greater Western Sydney ESS WC RIC GEE FRE SYD STK HAW 15
Hawthorn ADE WB NM STK GEE CAR MEL GWS 9
Melbourne PA GEE ESS SYD STK RIC HAW GC 10
North Melbourne FRE BRI HAW ADE ESS PA CAR GEE 17
Port Adelaide MEL CAR BRI RIC WC NM COL ADE 12
Richmond CAR COL GWS PA SYD MEL WB FRE 4
St Kilda GC ESS FRE HAW MEL ADE GWS WC 6
Sydney WB ADE CAR MEL RIC GWS BRI ESS 14
Western Bulldogs SYD HAW GC COL CAR FRE RIC BRI 3
West Coast BRI GWS COL FRE PA GEE GC STK 11

Conclusion

The teams with the easiest starts are Fremantle, Gold Coast, and the Western Bulldogs. These teams were on the bottom third of the ladder last year and are more likely to blood new players. So that’s something worth noting when choosing between your starting rookies. Interestingly Richmond is in 4th place – so while they’re not likely to play too many new players their ‘blue chip’ players are likely to do well in the early part of the season. Other teams to consider are Brisbane, St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton.

Teams with slower starts were all power-houses last year: Collingwood, North Melbourne, Geelong and Greater Western Sydney.

So tell us what you think in the comments.