AFL Fantasy is getting increasingly competitive and in this day and age all things must be considered when trying to find an edge on the competition. A frequently overlooked factor when choosing between similar players is their up-coming fixtures. After all, we know that players in winning teams score more points. And getting a good start is essential; players that start more quickly also gain value more quickly – which helps you complete your team faster than your rival coaches.
To determine the difficulty of the draw I have added up the AFL Fantasy “Points Conceded” for each team last season. Essentially, teams that are easy to score against are considered easier draws. I used a similar methodology last year, but this year I’ve expanded upon it by also considering whether a team is playing “home” and “away”. After all, there are some teams which are power-houses on their home ground but are a much easier opponent away.
Points Conceded – Best to Worst
While last years performance isn’t a guarantee of future performance, it’s the best indication we have. So if you believe a team will do better or worse in 2019 – take that into consideration.
|Team||Points Conceded (Home)||Points Conceded (Away)|
|Greater Western Sydney||17615||16617|
An easy draw is ‘green’ in colour, and a hard draw is ‘red’.
|Greater Western Sydney||ESS||WC||RIC||GEE||FRE||SYD||STK||HAW||15|
The teams with the easiest starts are Fremantle, Gold Coast, and the Western Bulldogs. These teams were on the bottom third of the ladder last year and are more likely to blood new players. So that’s something worth noting when choosing between your starting rookies. Interestingly Richmond is in 4th place – so while they’re not likely to play too many new players their ‘blue chip’ players are likely to do well in the early part of the season. Other teams to consider are Brisbane, St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton.
Teams with slower starts were all power-houses last year: Collingwood, North Melbourne, Geelong and Greater Western Sydney.
So tell us what you think in the comments.